United States is Dying and on the Worst Economic Collapse
The current U.S. economy is headed for its Deepest and Longest Recession since World War II as mounting job losses take their toll on Consumer Confidence, Investment and Spending.
Economists are no longer talking about a U.S. recession but a Deep Recession after most of the statistical figures showed business sentiment continued to plummet in early February 2009.
“There seems to be a sense of a very deep-seated collapse in the economy,” said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics.
What happens when the US Dollars collapses? United States have about 13+ trillion dollar consumer debt and literally making trillions of dollars come out of nowhere. Ask anyone they will tell you that Common sense would indicate that the dollar’s going to collapse to nothing.
What life’s going to be like if this happen?
At the same time, A lot of Companies Slashing Prices Like Never Before
From Clothing to Cars!
Do Expected to have more news on Job-loss, Housing, Banking Collapse and meltdown, Energy Crises Converge to Slow Growth and bankruptcy.
It is not uncommon to hear More than one Wall Street firm or investment bank has written of tens of billions of dollars in uncollectable debt today.
In 2009 were going to see the worst economic collapse ever, the Greatest Depression, says Gerald Celente, U.S. trend forecaster. He believes its going to be very violent in the U.S., including there being a tax revolt.
Let Listen to Gerald Celente’s view on it. He’s a world respected trends research analyst and knows what he’s talking about in my opinion.
Do you think the US economy will break?
When United States sneeze, what countries will get the Worst Flu?
Is any there any country that immune from this?
How long does this Collapse will End?
Are worried about YOUR’s future and the world’s future?
You are Welcome to comments 
Related posts:
- Expect More Rough Times Ahead for US Economy?
- Jim Rogers: The Swine Flu Could Be A Disaster Collapses for the World Economy
At the risk of sounding like a socialist and/or communist sympathizer, consider this commentary which has been posted to several noteworthy internet publishing sites…
David W. Nerubucha
“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” The poignant words of this quotation were uttered by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, the first leader of the Soviet Union early in the previous century. The verdict might have come to fruition with the $787 billion stimulus package voted for and approved by Congress, in addition to getting signed into law by President Barack Obama recently, marking the event as a milestone of sorts. Interestingly, it follows similar actions undertaken by Franklin D. Roosevelt to jump start the American economy during the time of the Great Depression. With China holding approximately 10 per cent of US reserves, including Treasury Bills — occasioned in part, by the huge trade imbalance – it makes for perfect financial sense to borrow from them. The idea of nationalization of privately run commercial banks by the Federal government should not be condemned, but, rather, it is necessary action through Federal Reserve monetary policy instruments in order to stave off dire economic catastrophes. Indeed, the Democrats are now the architects of nationalization of the American economy, by default. At any rate, the implementation – cum – institutionalization of the Federal budget programs could turn out to be a friendlier and more humane market driven social capitalism
Cheers
It does look like a long haul for the US economy… but it will eventually recover. US companies innovate the world in many areas and there are many good people there too! BTW thanks for visiting my blog
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I’ve been involved in taxations for lengthier then I care to admit, both on the individualized side (all my working life-time!!) and from a legal point of view since passing the bar and following tax law. I’ve furnished a lot of advice and righted a lot of wrongs, and I must say that what you’ve put up makes utter sense. Please persist in the good work – the more individuals know the better they’ll be outfitted to handle with the tax man, and that’s what it’s all about.
Dow may hit 11,000 level on rise in US employment
NEW YORK: The Dow industrials could hit 11,000 this week as investors bet the US labour market had a significant turnaround in March, showing the economic recovery is in good shape.
The Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes are at their highest in nearly 18 months and the expected repositioning before Wednesday’s end of the quarter could provide further support. With the Dow closing above 10,850 on Friday, it would need to rise 1.4% – or a tad less than 150 points – to reach 11,000 level.
But with benchmark US Treasury yields approaching 4%, investors may prefer the relative safety of US debt instead of continuing to throw money at a stock market that has risen steeply for more than a year.
Economists expect data on Friday to show the economy created about 190,000 jobs in March, but stock investors will have to be brave enough to bet on that confirmation ahead of the data, since the market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Wednesday’s private-sector jobs data and Thursday’s jobless claims could support those willing to step out on a limb.
“Obviously, the jobs number is the most important thing” next week, said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, in New York.
“You are going to get this delayed reaction (the following) Monday, unless the claims numbers are just so terrific, that you get some pre-buying ahead of Friday.”
Stocks closed higher for a fourth straight week, around levels not seen since September 2008, as recent uncertainty stemming from fiscal problems in some European countries and the healthcare overhaul receded.
A European Union agreement on a safety net for Greece restored investor confidence, but that net could prove small if fiscal burdens bog down other EU members like Portugal, whose debt rating was cut on Wednesday by Fitch.
“Clearly, there is the potential for there to be fiscal issues with other countries in Europe, but the Europeans have now set a precedent that they intend to backstop any negative fiscal situations,” said Ken Farsalas, portfolio manager at Oberweis Asset Management in Lisle, Illinois.
Sentiment, nonetheless, remains downbeat. A stock market sell-off on Friday following news a South Korean naval ship had sunk suggests risk takers are ready to sell on any troublesome news – and ask questions later.
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 1%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 0.9%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond brushed 4% in the past week, foreshadowing a possible roadblock for stock bulls.
Three government debt auctions last week had “mediocre, at best”results and rising yields “at some point, become an obstacle for equities,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.
Yielding 4% and with the relative safety of US government debt, Treasuries could entice investor money that would otherwise continue to pump into stocks.
And rising yields also lead to higher borrowing costs.
“It becomes worrisome with a fragile economy that’s trying to gain traction and momentum,” Krosby said.
Investors will have plenty of data points to gauge that momentum in the coming holiday-shortened week.
The state of the consumer will be measured by February income and spending data today and March consumer confidence, tomorrow.
Personal income is expected to rise 0.1%, mirroring the previous month’s rise, while the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is seen rising to 50, from 46 in February, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index for January, due tomorrow, is expected to show house prices fell 0.7% year-over-year, a much slower pace than the 3.1% recorded in December
fr:biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/3/29/business/5952755&sec=business
Euro debt crisis a grim reminder for US
WASHINGTON: The European debt crisis is a stark reminder for the United States to tackle its own massive budget deficit, which some fear will remain at trillion-dollar levels for many years to come.
President Barack Obama, who inherited the flood of red ink from his predecessor George W. Bush, has promised to urgently ease the deficit.
But some analysts believe his administration is not taking the crisis seriously.
Just three days ago, Obama and his Treasury chief Timothy Geithner prodded European leaders grappling with a ballooning debt crisis to put their house in order.
Then data last Wednesday showed the US government had suffered its 19th consecutive month of red ink in April, the highest ever for that month.
“The irony of American officials telling Europeans to tighten their belts was accentuated” by the fresh deficit data, Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist for Yardeni Research said.
The April deficit brought the shortfall for the first seven months of the 2010 fiscal year ending Sept 30 to US$799.68bil.
The White House has forecast the 2010 deficit will swell to a new record of US$1.555 trillion due to massive spending to stimulate recovery from the worst recession in decades.
As debt contagion fears grip Europe sparked by problems in Greece, analysts warn that the United States has only limited time to forge a credible plan to end its own fiscal woes.
“Interestingly, however, the sense of urgency about near-term fiscal tightening, so evident this (last) week in the UK and euro area, is largely missing in the US,” noted Dean Maki, head of Barclays Capital US economic research.
Partly this was because investors tend to flock to rather than keep away from US Treasury bonds when risk aversion spiked, he said.
The US dollar, which has risen rapidly against the embattled euro amid the European debt crisis, is the premier reserve currency and viewed as a safe haven during financial turmoil.
The flight to US Treasuries was also due to a stronger pickup in US economic growth from recession, “which if sustained makes a given level of the deficit-to-GDP ratio easier to finance,” Maki said.
“However, we doubt the US can get by indefinitely without serious deficit reduction efforts,” he said.
One “interesting test” would come at the year-end, when the Bush-era tax cuts of 2003 were set to expire, raising marginal tax rates across a wide swath of households, Maki said.
Still, with Obama’s planned costly healthcare reforms, the deficit “will exceed US$1 trillion for many years to come”, warned Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland. – AFP
“Unless US policymakers unite behind a credible plan to shrink the deficit by this time next year, US interest rates will begin to rise, and the economy will begin to suffer,” warned Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “This is the clear lesson of the Greek crisis.”
Obama has established a bipartisan debt commission charged with finding ways to reduce the gaping budget deficit, promising to halve the deficit he took on by the end of his term of office in 2013.
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List of troubled banks in US grows
WASHINGTON: The number of troubled banks kept growing last quarter even as the industry as a whole had its best quarter in two years.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Thursday that the number of banks on its confidential “problem” list grew to 775 in the January-March period from 702 in the previous quarter.
But banks overall posted net income of US$18 billion.
That was up from $5.6 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.
“The banking system still has many problems to work through, and we cannot ignore the possibility of more financial market volatility,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair acknowledged.
But, she added, “The trends continue to move in the right direction.”
The largest banks showed the most improvement.
They have mounted a strong recovery with help from federal bailout money and record-low borrowing rates from the Federal Reserve.
A majority of institutions posted gains in net income in the first quarter.
But many small and midsized banks are likely to suffer distress in the coming years, especially from failed loans for office buildings and development projects.
Larger banks are doing better, partly because they are able to cut back on lending in troubled parts of the country such as Florida and Nevada, said Anil Shivdasani, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
“For the most part, smaller and regional banks have less flexibility,” he said.
And a further decline in home prices, expected by many analysts, would cause more losses for banks.
“Another leg down in housing could extend the period for which the credit distress persists,” said Richard Brown, the FDIC’s top economist.
“That’s a legitimate concern.”
The amount of money that banks set aside to cover future losses dipped nearly 17 percent from a year earlier.
Losses taken on loans that banks don’t expect to be repaid were up 38 percent from a year earlier.
But those losses were down slightly from the fourth quarter of last year.
The FDIC’s deposit insurance fund, which fell into the red last fall, posted its first improvement in two years.
Its deficit shrank by $145 million to $20.7 billion.
The FDIC expects U.S. bank failures to cost the insurance fund around $100 billion through 2013.
The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to help replenish the fund.
Agency officials noted that they are getting higher bids and more bidders at auctions for failed banks.
Banks have also been able to raise money in recent weeks to strengthen their balance sheets or make acquisitions.
Last year, 140 federally insured institutions failed and were shut down by regulators.
It was the highest annual number since 1992 during the peak of the savings and loan crisis.
Last year’s failures extended a string of collapses that began in 2008, triggered by loan defaults in the financial crisis.
The pace of bank collapses this year exceeds last year’s.
So far, 72 banks have failed in 2010. As a result of those failures and bank mergers, the number of FDIC-insured institutions fell to 7,932 in the first quarter.
That’s the first dip below 8,000 in the history of the FDIC, which was created in 1933.
However, depositors’ money – insured up to $250,000 per account – isn’t at risk.
The FDIC is backed by the government.
A change in accounting rules forced banks to bring assets packaged into securities onto their balance sheets.
That boosted the value of loans on banks’ books by nearly $249 billion, up nearly 2 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.
Without the accounting change, however, loan volume would have declined.
fr:biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/5/21/business/20100521074345&sec=business
Hanging on to gold
Fears that American, British and other governments intend to inflate their way off the rocks of excessive debt prompted record inflows into gold this week.
Now some fund managers claim the price could more than double to US$3,000 per ounce within five years.
Heavily indebted governments throughout the developed world are struggling to fill deficits of black-hole dimensions in public finances by imposing spending cuts and tax rises. Both are expected in Britain’s emergency Budget on June 22 and neither will be popular.
But keeping interest rates lower than inflation and letting the currency take the strain is another way to reduce the real value of debt. You can see why politicians may feel that is the “least worst” option.
Stealthily robbing savers by eroding the purchasing power of money is less likely to cause riots in the streets than spending cuts, because inflation tends to hit older people hardest while unemployment hits the young.
Governments can devalue their own currencies, but it is harder for them to make more gold. That fact helped prompt record inflows of US$484mil into gold exchange-traded commodities this week, while gold trading volumes peaked at US$2.1bil.
However, the precious metal is not a one-way bet and it slipped back below US$1,200 (£830) on Thursday as some investors took profits amid anxiety about an unsustainable bubble in the gold price.
Graham French, manager of the M&G Global Basics Fund, was undeterred. He said: “In a scenario of rising sovereign risk, where government finances are hugely overstretched and central banks have been systematically devaluing paper money, gold’s value as a safe haven and a stable physical currency can only increase over the medium term.
“Against this backdrop, the gold price could go much higher than these already elevated levels. It wouldn’t be too far fetched to see it rising above US$2,000, or even up to US$3,000.”
French’s strategy is based on the belief that things that emerging markets sell will fall in price over the next five years, while things that emerging markets buy will rise in price.
The explanation is that demand from the heavily indebted developed world may remain subdued, while demand from largely debt-free consumers in emerging markets will rise.
Rupert Robinson, chief executive of Schroders Private Bank, said: “Gold is setting record highs in almost every currency, despite headwinds including a strong dollar and monetary tightening in India and China, the main end markets for gold.
Today’s economic environment makes gold a must in any client portfolio.
“Interest rates are at historically low levels; central banks are bailing out the system; we have seen a huge amount of quantitative easing; currencies being debased and governments around the world are short of money.
Nothing goes up in a straight line, indeed there are signs that gold may be becoming over-owned and too fashionable in the short term, but I think that over the long term gold is a good asset to hang on to. It could easily reach US$2,000 per ounce within the next five years,” Robinson said.
Richard Davis, of BlackRock’s Natural Resources team, added: “Gold always does well in times of uncertainty, and this week is no exception. Lingering concerns over the Greek bail-out, uncertainty over global economic growth, and an inconclusive election result in Britain have all created nervousness in stock markets, and risk-averse investors are looking to gold as a store of value.
The fact that gold bullion is a real asset, which does not depend for its value on any company or government, makes it compelling as a “safe haven” investment.
Gold bullion is particularly popular in Asia and the Middle East and investors in these regions have continued to pile money into the asset class.
“It is worth noting that, adjusted for inflation, gold is still some way off its all-time high of US$850 per ounce in 1980, equivalent to more than US$2,200 in today’s terms.”
Adrian Ash, of BullionVault.com, said: “Inflation alone is not the driver. It’s real interest rates that matter, because if cash is beating inflation, no one needs gold. Whereas when cash loses value, year after year – and if the major productive alternatives, such as bonds, shares and property, also fail investors as well – then gold really comes into its own.
“Cash is being actively devalued – and not just in Britain; the Eurozone crisis is only the latest prime mover. Underlying the decade-long upturn in gold is a repeated attack on the virtue of savings,” Ash said.
Gold’s fundamental appeal remains that it is a store of value that is largely immune to government intervention.
French observed: “The great Irish dramatist George Bernard Shaw said: ‘You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold or the natural stability and intelligence of members of the government. And with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.’ I have to say, I’m with Bernard Shaw on this.
fr:biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/5/22/business/6316561&sec=business
Bernanke: No “double dip” recession
WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says he is hopeful the economy will gain traction and not fall back into a “double dip” recession.
Bernanke says: “My best guess is we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific.”
That’s because economic growth won’t be robust enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate, now at 9.7 percent, he says in remarks to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a nonpartisan research group.
The economy grew at a 3 percent pace in the first quarter of this year.
That’s good growth during normal times.
But coming out of such a deep recession, the economy must grow much more strongly to make a dent in the jobless rate.
fr:biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/6/8/business/20100608091536&sec=business
US Fed: recovery on track despite EU crisis and other headwinds
WASHINGTON: The European debt crisis is likely to have only a “modest” impact on the U.S. economic recovery as long as Wall Street stabilizes, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday.
Testifying before the House Budget Committee, Bernanke struck a more confident tone that the recovery will remain intact despite problems in Europe as well stubbornly high unemployment and a fragile housing market here at home.
“The economy … appears to be on track to continue to expand through this year and next,” Bernanke said.
However, the pace of the expansion – 3.5 percent this year by the Fed’s estimate – won’t be strong enough to quickly bring relief to the 15 million Americans who are unemployed.
The unemployment rate now at 9.7 percent would likely see only a “slow reduction,” Bernanke warned.
Fears have grown in recent weeks that the recovery could be derailed.
One worry is if Europe’s debt crisis turns into a broader financial contagion, crimping lending in the United States and around the globe.
The situation has spooked investors, sending Wall Street into periodic nosedives.
Another worry is that hiring in the United States by private companies could stall.
That fear was stoked by a government report last Friday, showing that job creation at private companies in May slowed sharply, with businesses adding only 41,000 new jobs, the fewest since the start of the year.
However, Bernanke said signals suggest that the economy will keep on plodding ahead as massive government stimulus fades.
Consumers and businesses have picked up the baton from the government and are spending sufficiently to keep the recovery on track, he said.
Still, spending by consumers is much more subdued than in the early stages of past economic recoveries.
That’s why economic growth is expected to be only modest this year, rather than blistering.
“It appears … that the recovery has made an important transition,” Bernanke told lawmakers.
While it can’t be entirely ruled out that the country could slide back into a “double dip” recession, Bernanke predicted that the “economy will continue to recover at a moderate pace.”
Channeling the anxiety many ordinary people feel about the recovery, the panel’s chairman, Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., said: “Too many Americans continue to feel the effects of this recession and wonder when … relief is going to come.”
Discussing the European crisis, Bernanke also struck a confident tone that the United States would get through the fallout without much damage.
“If markets continue to stabilize, then the effects of the crisis on economic growth in the United States seem likely to be modest,” Bernanke said.
Stock portfolios are taking a hit from a rattled Wall Street and weaker economic prospects in Europe probably will sap demand for U.S. exports.
Although such negative forces “will leave some imprint on the U.S. economy,” Bernanke said there are other more positive forces that will help out the United States.
They include low mortgage rates as investors flock to the safety of U.S. Treasurys, and lower prices for oil and other globally traded commodities, Bernanke said.
The Fed has pledged to hold rates at record lows to nurture the recovery.
Many economists believe the Fed will hold rates near zero when it meets next on June 22-23.
And, economists viewed Bernanke’s remarks on Wednesday as bolstering their beliefs that the Fed won’t start to boost rates until next year – or possibly 2012- given the European crisis and high unemployment.
“We will take the actions necessary to ensure stability and continued economic recovery,” Bernanke said.
Bernanke said European leaders are showing a firm resolve to fight the crisis and restore confidence in financial markets.
The Fed will remain “highly attentive” to developments abroad and their potential impact on the U.S. economy, Bernanke said.
On another topic, Bernanke said the Fed and other regulators intend in the next few weeks to tell banks to take steps to make sure their pay practices aren’t spurring excessive risk-taking by executives and other employees.
A Fed review found that many banks have not modified their compensation practices in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Bernanke said.
One of the problems that contributed to the crisis was compensation practices that emboldened reckless behavior.
The Fed chief also urged Congress and the White House to come up with a plan to whittle down record federal budget deficits.
Failing to do so could hurt the economy in the long run, Bernanke said. That’s because it can lead to higher interest rates for Americans to buy homes, cars and other things, and make it more expensive for Uncle Sam to service its debt payments.
At some point, “things will come apart,” he warned.
“We should be planning now” for a deficit-reduction blueprint, Bernanke said, adding that Europe’s debt problem is a sobering reminder of the need for countries to get their fiscal houses in order.
But he added that radical reductions in spending or big hikes in taxes right now wouldn’t be prudent because the U.S. recovery is fragile.
And, “more assistance” may be needed, he said. Bernanke didn’t provide details, although Congress is moving closer to extending unemployment benefits.
The nation’s red ink hit a record $1.4 trillion last year.
The recession took a big bite out of tax revenues, while spending rose to stimulate the economy and provide relief to struggling Americans.
Meanwhile a Fed survey found a modest recovery is spreading
For the first time since the beginning of the recession, economic growth – modest and fragile, but growth nonetheless – has spread to every corner of the U.S.
A survey released Wednesday found economic activity was improving across all 12 regions of the nation tracked by the Federal Reserve.
It was the first clean sweep in the report since 2007.
Metal producers in Chicago and St. Louis cranked out more steel. Makers of drugs and medical equipment in the Northeast did better business.
And sales of summer clothes were strong in fashion-conscious New York.
Still, the pace of growth in most parts of the country was described as modest.
That’s a sign that companies probably won’t starting hiring again anytime soon in great enough numbers to bring down the unemployment rate.
“It’s kind of like having more people sign up to run in the Boston Marathon but no one is running very fast,” said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
“You have more people in the race, but they are all running slowly.”
Fed chief Ben Bernanke sounded a similar note in testimony Wednesday before Congress, telling lawmakers that the economy will probably plod ahead in the coming months, producing limited growth.
Bernanke said the debt crisis in Europe, which has rattled the U.S. stock market since April, was unlikely to seriously harm the American recovery as long as Wall Street stabilizes.
He also predicted only a slow reduction in the unemployment rate, which stands at 9.7 percent, slightly lower than its quarter-century high.
The Fed’s region-by-region survey, traditionally known as the Beige Book, provides a unique snapshot of the nation as viewed from what you might think of as the economic trenches.
The central bank’s 12 regional arms have their people fan out to gather information from businesses and talk to local economists and experts on the markets.
The result is a much more intimate look at the overall economy than broad statistics provide.
At the low point of the recession, all 12 regions reported shrinking economic activity.
This time around, the survey found that manufacturing was picking up, retail sales and housing were growing, and tourism was improving. Housing was helped by a tax credit for homebuyers that expired in April.
Commercial real estate, on the other hand, was weak. And while shoppers spent more freely, they stayed focused on the necessities, not big-ticket buys.
The Fed report backed up other recent signs that the job market is slowly improving. More people quit their jobs in the past three months than were laid off – a sharp reversal after 15 straight months in which layoffs exceeded voluntary departures.
Some of the quitters are leaving for new jobs, while others have no firm offers, but their newfound confidence about landing work is a good sign for the economy.
“The hangover is kind of over,” said David Adams, vice president of training at Adecco, a national staffing agency.
“It’s really starting to move toward a market where the employee can have a lot more confidence making a move.”
The last Beige Book report showed economic conditions improving in every part of the U.S. but one, the Fed’s St. Louis region.
The new report has the heartland area joining the rest of the country, helped by strong metal production.
In the Fed’s Atlanta region, which includes much of the Southeast, businesses reported modest improvements, but they expressed uncertainty about the economic fallout from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and record flooding in Tennessee.
The survey will figure into the deliberations when Bernanke and his colleagues meet later this month.
They are expected to leave interest rates near record lows to keep encouraging the fragile recovery.
Inflation isn’t much of a problem for the economy right now. Companies are hesitant to jack up prices when shoppers are so cautious, and employers aren’t handing out hefty pay raises, either.
Economists predict it will take at least until the middle of this decade to recoup the more than 8 million jobs wiped out by the recession and bring unemployment down to a more normal 5.5 percent to 6 percent
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